The Chess Addict
July 10th 03, 01:09 AM
"Kaspa" > wrote in message >...
>
> Kaspa [known to make strategy changes at exactly the wrong time]
As some of you know, I started testing a new strategy, using
our MIMF challenge as a vehicle on June 16. I wanted to test
whether momentum persists, at least for a short-term.
I thought of playing with $50,000 (nice round number),
distributed equally over ten high momentum stocks. The
strategy is to relace stocks losing momentum with those
gaining momentum.
Intuitively, it would appear that falling markets would
result in high losses for such a strategy. Since, I had
conjectured that a reversal was on the cards around that time,
I wanted to find out how bad it could be? I expected to take
a big hit. I have been pleasantly surprised so far. Of course,
this is much too short to draw any conclusions, especially
of the disproving EMH kind :-). Let's see how it goes
for the rest of the year.
From 6/16 open - invested amount about $50,000
Close of 7/9 - current value about $62,130
Return : 24%
As a comparison
^spx : +1.4%
^ndx : +7%
^dji : +0.6%
^djch : -3%
The interesting thing is that all stocks in the current
portfolio are winners, most of them double digit gainers.
Some are blockbusters
ASKJ +30%
FLML +9.5%
HITK +9%
NTES +21%
PRTL +32%
RATE +42%
SINA +59%
SOHU +23%
TRAD +17%
WSTL +24%
Of course, I sold some losers (MTLG, USNA), when they had
lost momentum and dropped about 25%. Still, when a rank beginner
like me (about 2 years in the market) starts picking these big
gainers with ease, and I know my record in stock-picking :-(,
I start getting worried. Is it back to 1999?
Meanwhile in real money, enjoying my gains with CHINA, ASIA, AWA, DRL,
BRSIX (now that's a nice fund). ACF, AHO, WDC got stopped out with nice
gains. My biotech short is not doing too well.
Kaspa [Now the tough part - keep the profits :-)]
>
> Kaspa [known to make strategy changes at exactly the wrong time]
As some of you know, I started testing a new strategy, using
our MIMF challenge as a vehicle on June 16. I wanted to test
whether momentum persists, at least for a short-term.
I thought of playing with $50,000 (nice round number),
distributed equally over ten high momentum stocks. The
strategy is to relace stocks losing momentum with those
gaining momentum.
Intuitively, it would appear that falling markets would
result in high losses for such a strategy. Since, I had
conjectured that a reversal was on the cards around that time,
I wanted to find out how bad it could be? I expected to take
a big hit. I have been pleasantly surprised so far. Of course,
this is much too short to draw any conclusions, especially
of the disproving EMH kind :-). Let's see how it goes
for the rest of the year.
From 6/16 open - invested amount about $50,000
Close of 7/9 - current value about $62,130
Return : 24%
As a comparison
^spx : +1.4%
^ndx : +7%
^dji : +0.6%
^djch : -3%
The interesting thing is that all stocks in the current
portfolio are winners, most of them double digit gainers.
Some are blockbusters
ASKJ +30%
FLML +9.5%
HITK +9%
NTES +21%
PRTL +32%
RATE +42%
SINA +59%
SOHU +23%
TRAD +17%
WSTL +24%
Of course, I sold some losers (MTLG, USNA), when they had
lost momentum and dropped about 25%. Still, when a rank beginner
like me (about 2 years in the market) starts picking these big
gainers with ease, and I know my record in stock-picking :-(,
I start getting worried. Is it back to 1999?
Meanwhile in real money, enjoying my gains with CHINA, ASIA, AWA, DRL,
BRSIX (now that's a nice fund). ACF, AHO, WDC got stopped out with nice
gains. My biotech short is not doing too well.
Kaspa [Now the tough part - keep the profits :-)]