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Ronald Raygun
August 3rd 03, 06:43 PM
harvey wrote:

> Does anybody have any opinions regading house prices in the immediate
> future?

Almost certainly.

System Prompt
August 4th 03, 04:20 AM
On Sun, 3 Aug 2003 16:31:27 +0100, "harvey" >
wrote:

>Does anybody have any opinions regading house prices in the immediate
>future?
>
Stagnant......... for the next 48-72 hours, possibly longer.

Though I suppose that also depends upon your definition of immediate

Stephen

System Prompt
August 4th 03, 04:36 AM
On Sun, 03 Aug 2003 22:20:57 GMT, "[email protected]" > wrote:

>
>"harvey" > wrote in message
...
>> Does anybody have any opinions regading house prices in the immediate
>> future?
>
>The answer is nobody knows. I personally think they will come down but I
>believe no man in this land can predict when and how much by. Houses are
>priced at way too much now for what they are worth. People cant sell their
>homes and gain anything unless they move into something smaller of course.
>Young poor people like me are screwed for the time being.
>

YOU'RE A F(*&%^ TOSSER AND TOTALLY WRONG THEY CAN ONLY GO UP AND UP
BUY REAL ESTATE NOW THEY AREN'T MAKING ANY MORE LAND IMMIGRANTS ARE
TAKING OVER THE COUNTRY AND HAVE BAGS OF MONEY SO YOU'VE GOTTA BUY
BEFORE THEY GET THE HOUSE THAT YOU WANT BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY !!!!!!!!!

Wow. That was kinda fun. I've always wanted to do that! <g>

I however agree with the response, people will not continue to pay
100,000+ to purchase converted garages on a 22,000 per year income.
Eventually reality sets in. But if you want a different opinion just
ask any realtor trying to flog some overpriced converted sewer down
pipe.

Stephen

Peter Saxton
August 4th 03, 08:14 AM
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 01:18:09 +0100, "Harvey" > wrote:

>
>[email protected] > wrote in message
...
>>
>> "harvey" > wrote in message
>> ...
>> > Does anybody have any opinions regading house prices in the immediate
>> > future?
>>
>> The answer is nobody knows. I personally think they will come down but I
>> believe no man in this land can predict when and how much by. Houses are
>> priced at way too much now for what they are worth. People cant sell their
>> homes and gain anything unless they move into something smaller of course.
>> Young poor people like me are screwed for the time being.
>
>You sure got that right pal, your not alone. Thats for sure. People make
>wild predictions ranging from reduction in price by 90% to 10%. Good old
>common sense will say that if the average person can't afford to buy a first
>home,then it will definitely cause a change in the market place of some
>sort. The question is, what kind of change.
>>
>>
>
Who's made a 90% reduction prediction? Certainly not anyone with any
sense.


Peter Saxton from London

Ronald Raygun
August 4th 03, 01:56 PM
Peter Saxton wrote:

> Who's made a 90% reduction prediction? Certainly not anyone with any
> sense.

Well, some of the things Mike Holmes comes out with can be a
bit unorthodox, but to dismiss him as having no sense would be
going a bit far.

And though he hasn't actually predicted a 90% reduction, he has
dropped heavy hints that it would certainly not be beyond the
realms of possibility, especially given that it *has happened*
recently in Japan.

Doug Ramage
August 4th 03, 02:35 PM
"Ronald Raygun" > wrote in message
...
> Peter Saxton wrote:
>
> > Who's made a 90% reduction prediction? Certainly not anyone with any
> > sense.
>
> Well, some of the things Mike Holmes comes out with can be a
> bit unorthodox, but to dismiss him as having no sense would be
> going a bit far.
>
> And though he hasn't actually predicted a 90% reduction, he has
> dropped heavy hints that it would certainly not be beyond the
> realms of possibility, especially given that it *has happened*
> recently in Japan.
>

Quite a few people have been trying to argue against a property crash here
in the UK on the basis of low interest rates, but that (of itself) has not
prevented Japan with 0% interest rates from property deflation of 90%.
--
Doug Ramage

M Holmes
August 4th 03, 05:44 PM
Doug Ramage > wrote:

:> And though he hasn't actually predicted a 90% reduction, he has
:> dropped heavy hints that it would certainly not be beyond the
:> realms of possibility, especially given that it *has happened*
:> recently in Japan.

: Quite a few people have been trying to argue against a property crash here
: in the UK on the basis of low interest rates,

This would IMHO be a fair assessment were we discussing an ordinary
property bubble: any collapse would almost certainly be a result of the
deleveraging following a hike in interest rates.

: but that (of itself) has not
: prevented Japan with 0% interest rates from property deflation of 90%.

Really the aftermath of a credit bubble with the credit raised agsint
both equities and property.

As I've said before, I think the bond ructions of the past month may
indicate the imminent end of our own credit bubble. Things could be put
to the test quite soon. Interesting that it hasn't excited much comment
in the comics.

FoFP

--
You wouldn't like me when I'm Angry....from Tunbridge Wells.

ginger
August 4th 03, 06:01 PM
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 16:44:15 +0000 (UTC), M Holmes > wrote:

>Doug Ramage > wrote:
>
>:> And though he hasn't actually predicted a 90% reduction, he has
>:> dropped heavy hints that it would certainly not be beyond the
>:> realms of possibility, especially given that it *has happened*
>:> recently in Japan.
>
>: Quite a few people have been trying to argue against a property crash here
>: in the UK on the basis of low interest rates,
>
>This would IMHO be a fair assessment were we discussing an ordinary
>property bubble: any collapse would almost certainly be a result of the
>deleveraging following a hike in interest rates.
>
>: but that (of itself) has not
>: prevented Japan with 0% interest rates from property deflation of 90%.
>
>Really the aftermath of a credit bubble with the credit raised agsint
>both equities and property.
>
>As I've said before, I think the bond ructions of the past month may
>indicate the imminent end of our own credit bubble. Things could be put
>to the test quite soon. Interesting that it hasn't excited much comment
>in the comics.

Could that be because they don't believe it will happen?.........

I ask as someone who having sold up a couple of years ago would love to see property dive
so I can get something half-decent with my dosh.

I see in the observer at the weekend that a new BoE governer, a new predicting model -
running alongside the old apparently for 6 months or so - a new way of gauging inflation
all point to a slackening of discipline and hence lower trend in interest rates and
etc.etc. 4% inflation (measured the old way) over 5 years or so might be manageable and
would eat away significantly at debt.

This isn't my point-of-view or conviction, more my anxiety.

>
>FoFP

Harvey
August 4th 03, 06:05 PM
Doug Ramage > wrote in message
...
>
> "Ronald Raygun" > wrote in message
> ...
> > Peter Saxton wrote:
> >
> > > Who's made a 90% reduction prediction? Certainly not anyone with any
> > > sense.
> >
> > Well, some of the things Mike Holmes comes out with can be a
> > bit unorthodox, but to dismiss him as having no sense would be
> > going a bit far.
> >
> > And though he hasn't actually predicted a 90% reduction, he has
> > dropped heavy hints that it would certainly not be beyond the
> > realms of possibility, especially given that it *has happened*
> > recently in Japan.

Who is Mike Holmes when he's at home? How much credibility is given to this
prediction?
> >
>
> Quite a few people have been trying to argue against a property crash here
> in the UK on the basis of low interest rates, but that (of itself) has not
> prevented Japan with 0% interest rates from property deflation of 90%.

So why are we likely to consider a property crash of that amount just
because it happened in Japan?
> --
> Doug Ramage
>
>

Jane Tweedynn
August 4th 03, 08:01 PM
> : Who's made a 90% reduction prediction? Certainly not anyone with any
> : sense.
>
> I think that's meant to be me. To be more accurate, I've said that I
> expect a nominal price drop of between 75% and 90% with about half of
> that being a real price drop (on a par with the real price drop of the
> early 90's) with the balance being made up by a deflation.
>
> See Japan, Hong Kong and Germany for examples of current sizeable real
price
> drops and Japan and Hong Kong for how deflation can turn this into the
> sort of drop that I expect.
>
> This would be contingent on the correctness of my theory that this time
> we're not in a housing bubble but in a credit bubble. If I'm wrong about
> that then there probably won't be a deflation and we'll likely see drops
> only a little worse than the early 90's.
>
> I'd concur that the idea that we're in a credit bubble and headed for
> deflation might have seemed somewhat off the wall back in 1998 but since
> then some fairly respectable economists have been voicing similar
> worries, not least the recenly deceased Professor Kindleberger who was
> regarded as an expert on bubbles and manias. I'd submit that your "not
> anyone with any sense" jibe is now more unrealistic than such
> predictions.
>

FWIW i can't believe we will see a drop of 75% - 90% without prices going up
much higher. But i, like a lot of other people would welcome the idea of
being able to buy a £100k house in real terms for 10k.

Do you expect prices to go higher or do you think prices have topped?

What year are you currently predicting for deflation?

Also just out of interest how have you positioned yourself financially, what
signs are you looking for before you will position yourself differently.

Your views are always welcome on this newsgroup, even if i go to sleep at
times when you and Stephen go off. No doubt he will pipe up soon with a
little bit more than a wise crack.

System Prompt
August 4th 03, 08:56 PM
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 18:05:15 +0100, "Harvey" > wrote:

><snip>
>>
>> Quite a few people have been trying to argue against a property crash here
>> in the UK on the basis of low interest rates, but that (of itself) has not
>> prevented Japan with 0% interest rates from property deflation of 90%.
>
>So why are we likely to consider a property crash of that amount just
>because it happened in Japan?

It would be ludicrous to compare a western industrialized highly
populated Island with an aging population that has moved it's
industrial base off-shore and maintains a low interest policy to
an Eastern industrialized highly populated Island with an aging
population that has moved it's industrial base off-shore with a low
interest policy.

It would be farcical to compare Japan and the UK. I mean people there
were paying silly prices for residences in Tokyo with beyond a
lifetime payback schedule, the price of homes in London is very
reasonable priced aren't they? Besides the housing market in London
remains strong doesn't it?

Nothing like the UK at all, it's like comparing navel and mandarin
oranges.

Stephen.

Pete
August 4th 03, 09:34 PM
"System Prompt" > wrote in message
...
> On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 18:05:15 +0100, "Harvey" > wrote:
>
> ><snip>
> >>
> >> Quite a few people have been trying to argue against a property crash
here
> >> in the UK on the basis of low interest rates, but that (of itself) has
not
> >> prevented Japan with 0% interest rates from property deflation of 90%.
> >
> >So why are we likely to consider a property crash of that amount just
> >because it happened in Japan?
>
> It would be ludicrous to compare a western industrialized highly
> populated Island with an aging population that has moved it's
> industrial base off-shore and maintains a low interest policy to
> an Eastern industrialized highly populated Island with an aging
> population that has moved it's industrial base off-shore with a low
> interest policy.
>

Isn't the chief difference that Japan is a net creditor and the UK (along
with the US) is a net debtor?

There was an article in one of the broadsheets recently about how this
causes some countries to worry more about inflation and some more about
deflation. Most of it went over my head so perhaps someone could fill me in?

Pete

Stephen Burke
August 4th 03, 10:12 PM
Doug Ramage > wrote:
> Quite a few people have been trying to argue against a property crash
> here in the UK on the basis of low interest rates, but that (of
> itself) has not prevented Japan with 0% interest rates from property
> deflation of 90%.

I'm not sure anyone has ever posted real numbers on what mortgage rates are in
Japan, as opposed to base rates, or what kind of salary multiples you can
borrow, or even whether most people can borrow at all.

--
Stephen Burke

Stephen Burke
August 4th 03, 10:17 PM
M Holmes > wrote:
> If you disagree then I invite you to offer any statistic which we'd
> expect to reach an extreme at the peak of a credit bubble which is not
> now currently at such an extreme.

Err, interest payments as a fraction of salary would be a fairly basic one.

--
Stephen Burke

news
August 5th 03, 12:04 AM
In article >, M Holmes
> writes
>As I've said before, I think the bond ructions of the past month may
>indicate the imminent end of our own credit bubble. Things could be put
>to the test quite soon. Interesting that it hasn't excited much comment
>in the comics.

A fair bit in the pink one, though.

More interesting was the snippet about the jump in swap rates and
withdrawal of fixed rate loans by a few lenders. Preparation for rising
interest rates, methinks.
--
David Lawson

August 5th 03, 11:19 AM
On Mon, 04 Aug 2003 03:36:00 GMT, System Prompt >
wrote:

>I however agree with the response, people will not continue to pay
>100,000+ to purchase converted garages on a 22,000 per year income.
>Eventually reality sets in. But if you want a different opinion just
>ask any realtor trying to flog some overpriced converted sewer down
>pipe.

In my local area (not London) estate agents are taking on a increasing
amount of houses onto their books but (virtually) nothing is selling.
Sounds like ideal conditions for a downwards trend in house prices.

However the local rag is still reporting an increase in prices.

Mark

M Holmes
August 5th 03, 12:08 PM
Pete > wrote:

: There was an article in one of the broadsheets recently about how this
: causes some countries to worry more about inflation and some more about
: deflation. Most of it went over my head so perhaps someone could fill me in?

Short form: At the start of a deflation, you want to be out of debt.

FoFP

--
You wouldn't like me when I'm Angry....from Tunbridge Wells.

Harvey
August 5th 03, 05:41 PM
M Holmes > wrote in message
...
> Pete > wrote:
>
> : There was an article in one of the broadsheets recently about how this
> : causes some countries to worry more about inflation and some more about
> : deflation. Most of it went over my head so perhaps someone could fill me
in?
>
> Short form: At the start of a deflation, you want to be out of debt.
>
> FoFP
>
> --
> You wouldn't like me when I'm Angry....from Tunbridge Wells.


So then am I correct in saying that deflation eg. is the opposite of
"inflation", and instead of your money being reducedin value, eg. then in
"real terms" your debt being reduced it is actually increasing in real
terms?

And so I assume that would also be the case for your mortgage debt?


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Harvey
August 5th 03, 06:46 PM
M Holmes > wrote in message
...
> harvey > wrote:
>
> : Does anybody have any opinions regading house prices in the immediate
> : future?
>
> Saw something of interest which applies somewhat to this thread, both
> because the basic economics applies to the UK too and because if
> anything like this hits America at the moment then global deflation is
> pretty near a certainty:
>
> http://www.levy.org/docs/ppb/ppb73.pdf

Can you say that Global Deflation is a good thing?


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System Prompt
August 5th 03, 07:07 PM
On Tue, 5 Aug 2003 17:41:42 +0100, "Harvey" > wrote:

><snip>
>
>So then am I correct in saying that deflation eg. is the opposite of
>"inflation", and instead of your money being reducedin value, eg. then in
>"real terms" your debt being reduced it is actually increasing in real
>terms?
>
>And so I assume that would also be the case for your mortgage debt?
>
That sound pretty close to it to me. Hence people that have done
through deflation are very cautious of debt.

Inflation; the governments way of uniformly stealing from millions.

Stephen

System Prompt
August 5th 03, 07:10 PM
On Tue, 5 Aug 2003 18:46:31 +0100, "Harvey" > wrote:

>
>M Holmes > wrote in message
...
>> harvey > wrote:
>>
>> : Does anybody have any opinions regading house prices in the immediate
>> : future?
>>
>> Saw something of interest which applies somewhat to this thread, both
>> because the basic economics applies to the UK too and because if
>> anything like this hits America at the moment then global deflation is
>> pretty near a certainty:
>>
>> http://www.levy.org/docs/ppb/ppb73.pdf
>
>Can you say that Global Deflation is a good thing?
>
Yes, For the Japanese or any other net creditor (assuming they are
able to collect ;-)

Stephen

M Holmes
August 5th 03, 07:14 PM
Harvey > wrote:

:> Short form: At the start of a deflation, you want to be out of debt.

: So then am I correct in saying that deflation eg. is the opposite of
: "inflation", and instead of your money being reducedin value, eg. then in
: "real terms" your debt being reduced it is actually increasing in real
: terms?

: And so I assume that would also be the case for your mortgage debt?

Yes and yes.

FoFP

M Holmes
August 5th 03, 07:18 PM
Harvey > wrote:

:> Saw something of interest which applies somewhat to this thread, both
:> because the basic economics applies to the UK too and because if
:> anything like this hits America at the moment then global deflation is
:> pretty near a certainty:
:>
:> http://www.levy.org/docs/ppb/ppb73.pdf

: Can you say that Global Deflation is a good thing?

It depends on the circumstances engendering it. If it's the cure to a
credit bubble then in the long run it's a good thing because it
liquidates debt and redeploys assets and labour away from malinvestment
and towards whatever investment will drive the next boom. For some
caught with falling assets and rising debt raised to finance those
assets, or those caught in the middle of being redeployed, it might not
seem a good thing for quite a while.

The real question is would we be better without asset or credit bubbles
or is the pain afterwards worth the gain?

FoFP

Jon Dunn
August 6th 03, 07:12 PM
Guardian, 6th Aug:

"Halifax, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, reported that house prices
moved ahead strongly in July, defying forecasts of a property market crash.
The average house price rose to £132,000 in July, up 1.3% on the month
compared with the 0.6% gain in June that prompted many forecasters to
proclaim the imminent death of the property boom."

FWIW

Jane Tweedynn
August 6th 03, 10:51 PM
> : What year are you currently predicting for deflation?
>
> I thought we'd hit it in 2003. OTOH I expected the 1987 stocks crash in
> 1985 and the 1989 housing crash in 1987 so I'm pretty consistently
> early. If timing were that easy, I'd be writing this from my yacht.
>
> : Also just out of interest how have you positioned yourself financially
>
> No debt-financed assets. Treasuries and cash.
>
> : what
> : signs are you looking for before you will position yourself differently.
>
> Once we're in deflation and the government starts borrowing crazily,
> I'll get out of treasuries. Once I reckon house prices are down enough,
> I'll buy a house for cash.
>

Strange how some economists are now changing their approach from deflation
to inflation.

Either way, its a fascinating time that we are living through, no doubt we
will have good stories to tell in years to come.

Cuthbert
August 8th 03, 12:24 AM
Stephen Burke > wrote in message
...
> Jane Tweedynn > wrote:
> > Your views are always welcome on this newsgroup, even if i go to
> > sleep at times when you and Stephen go off. No doubt he will pipe up
> > soon with a little bit more than a wise crack.
>
> I'm not sure if that's an insult or not, but in any case I can't really be
> bothered arguing with Mr Holmes any more, since he always says the same
thing.
>
Ouch! That was rather cutting.
>


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Tim
August 8th 03, 12:56 PM
> M Holmes wrote:
> > If you disagree then I invite you to offer any statistic which we'd
> > expect to reach an extreme at the peak of a credit bubble which is not
> > now currently at such an extreme.
>

"Stephen Burke" wrote
> Err, interest payments as a fraction of salary would be a fairly basic
one.

Tee hee - that told him!

Timothy Lee
August 8th 03, 01:51 PM
In article >, M Holmes
> writes
>Cuthbert > wrote:
>
>
>:> I'm not sure if that's an insult or not, but in any case I can't really be
>:> bothered arguing with Mr Holmes any more, since he always says the same
>: thing.
>:>
>: Ouch! That was rather cutting.
>
>I take it as a compliment actually.

If you always predict the same thing you will be right sometimes!
Like the doctor who always got it right when predicting the sex of a
baby, he would always tell them it was a boy, and would write down his
prediction, so when it turned out to be a girl he could get out the
notes and show that he told them it was going to be a girl!

--
Timothy Lee http://www.wightproperty.com